The final chapter of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR PLANET EARTH (the LOOK INSIDE doesn't work here, but the Kindle edition is only $3.95--however, the full chapter is serialized in this blog beginning on 25August2008)) is a doomsday scenario if all the worst case conditions come together. I've also summarized this scare in a couple of Huffington Post articles:
The Venus Syndrome is this catastrophic cascade converting the atmosphere of Planet Earth into Planet Venus-like conditions, where the temperature is at 863 F. How?
- the sensitive dynamic equilibrium of methane hydrates (there is perhaps twice the amount of energy in these deposits at the bottom of the ocean than all the known coal, oil and natural gas on land) is upset
- earthquakes (especially if they occur around the Ring of Fire), global warming, tsunamis and asteroids trigger this potential, and these events can catalyze the activity level of each other
Call it the methane time bomb or clathrate gun hypothesis if you want, but the sudden release in our geological past has triggered at least two catastrophic periods for life:
- The Permian-Triassic extinction (96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebras) event called the the Great Dying occured 253 million years ago, where the sudden release of methane clathrates (same as hydrates) might have been the cause. The latest theory is that a huge asteroid triggered a series of earthquakes up to 9.9 moment magnitude, resulting in a monumental methane burp.
- The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum Extinction happened 55 million years ago and was not as cataclysmic as the above. Further, there was an 11 F temperature increase, but over 20,000 years. Volcanic eruptions, a comet crash or methane? There is no overwhelming evidence, but methane no doubt was part of the process, for a violent comet crash at the right location would release this gas from the ocean.
The following shows our temperature from 540 million years to today:
You can hardly read this graph (you will see the details if you click on it), but the horizontal axis is logorithmic time, where the temperature increases at minus 253 million years and minus 55 million years are clearly observable. Compared to those days, our atmosphere is relatively cool today
A few more graphs for the recored:
What's the problem with methane? Depending on conditions, one molecule of methane can have 20 to 72 times the effect of capturing heat than one molecule of carbon dioxide. What happens to methane in the atmosphere over time? It oxidizes into carbon dioxide and water vapor, which will continue to increase the Greenhouse Effect. Note that in the bottom graph the methane increase has stabilized. However, most scientists feel this is a temporary pause until more natural emissions are released from the tundra and oceans.
Just this past week, there were two releases potentially affecting The Venus Syndrome (that's Venus to the left from the Venera 13 spacecraft):
1. The Journal of Nature Geoscience reported that an underwater earthquake 70 years ago likely fractured the seafloor off Pakistan, creating pathways for methane (CH4, the primary component in natural gas) to bubble to the surface. Conservatively, 10 million cubic yards of methane have been released during this period, and this is just a minor resource base for marine methane.
2. More and more, fracking is also being used to stimulate oil/gas offshore wells. One would be the effect of these chemicals to marine life, but two, what about the release of methane?
My next book could well be a novel entitled The Venus Syndrome. Surely, then, that blockbuster doomsday movie, with a sequel providing the ultimate solution, maybe.
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Tropical Storm Henriette at 60 MPH is right behind Gil, but while the latter dissipated, Henriette is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. While she could pose a possible similar problem as Flossie last week, the current projection is for her to subsequently weaken and move south of the Big Island, possibly only bringing some southshore waves and a bit of moisture to Hawaii around the middle of next week.
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