COST OF ARCTIC METHANE RELEASE COULD BE 'SIZE OF GLOBAL ECONOMY'

From the Environmental Research Web is a shocker of a headline from researchers associated with Rotterdam (Gail Whiteman of Erasmus University, left) and Cambridge (Chris Hope, below, and Peter Wadham, bottom photo). According to their economic model, the methane emissions caused by shrinking/melting sea ice from just one area of the Arctic could come with a global price tag of $60 trillion, which is the annual size of the world economy.  Is this a sign of The Venus Syndrome, a subject I again revisited earlier this month?

You can read that article, but here is a summary:

• the methane stored in the Arctic is many times worse than the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
• this methane will be emitted steadily over the next three decades...or in one giant burp

• their model only applies to methane on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, a fraction of the total Arctic (thus, the total effect of leaking methane will be much worse)
• this $60 trillion bill is not a worst case scenario but representative of the mean from 10,000 potential scenarios
• the Arctic landscape is an "economic time-bomb"

It was not directly stated, but the implication is that the effect of global warming is not just a worry over the next hundred or thousand year period, but a matter of imminent economic concern.

My immediate reaction was, nah, this must be just one of those overly exaggerated academic exercises that will be cited by those naysayers as just another example of irresponsible science.  And, certainly, there is some skepticism.  But we are talking about the University of Cambridge, in many rankings, the #2 rated institution in the world.  There must be some high credibility, then, to what is being said, for the higher administration and oversight board would not allow the release of so inflammable a report.  CNN indicated that Whiteman is quoted to say:  

The story is not doom and gloom.  We're hoping that we can use this to kick-start some innovative discussions.  

As decision-makers are only sitting on their hands, she makes a telling point.

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