As half of you are here for the first time, and many are not particularly conversant with the subject, let me begin with a few fundamentals. First, there is fission, where large molecules of uranium and plutonium break apart to provide energy, like in an Atomic Bomb. Fusion is the combination of hydrogen isotopes into helium plus energy, like the Hydrogen Bomb. The waste products are shorter lived and, therefore, less dangerous. Our Sun and all stars use fusion. Thus, solar energy is fusion. The energy output of just one second of fusion from the Sun, if converted to electricity, would satisfy our current needs for a million years.
The ITER project in Provence, France, is attempting to apply magnetic confinement (utilizing a torus or donut-shaped device) to produce electricity. The hope is that the technology can be commercialized sometime after 2050. There is also intertial confinement, as the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. In the 70's I worked way under Edward Teller on this laser fusion program. Unfortunately, LLNR failed to gain ignition last year, so there is a possibility that the National Ignition Facility could be abandoned or assigned a service mission. I had a HuffPo on fusion two years ago.
So if nuclear power is to be a part of our energy future, it will be only dirty fission for a long time to come. Thus, radioactive waste storage could become as large an issue as any new construction, for no one wants these dangerous stockpiles with half lives of hundreds of thousand years to be in his backyard. No doubt the deep ocean will again return for consideration, and the more idiotic shot into space, too, but the prospect of that rocket crashing pretty much wipes out this option. To the right is that $1.5 billion sarcophagus to be slide over the stricken Chernobyl facility. When completed, this will become the largest movable structure. Someday, Fukushima will need something similar.
Ironically, what is most delaying the push to restore the building of state of the art nuclear reactors is the matter of fracking. Natural gas has become so relatively cheap that utility decision-makers now don't want to be saddled with the problems and costs associated with nuclear.
In any case, from a worldwide peak of 17% in 1993, the proportion of nuclear electricity today has fallen to 10%. Here is everything you want to know about nuclear power in one graphic:
You will almost be able to read it if you click on the above.
So what is the state of nuclear power around the world?
- Duke Power just abandoned a $25 billion effort to build two 1,100 MW nuclear power plants in Florida. It was only in the 2000-2002 timeframe when new nuclear units were projected to cost from $1200/kW to $1500/kW. This jumped to $5500 to $8100/kW in 2008. Now in 2013, north of $11,000/kW.
- While public support for nuclear in France is growing, according to the headline, if you read the details, 41% said France should reduce its nuclear share "because it is dangerous." If you read the bottom line of the diagram above, the leftmost country with 75% nuclear is France.
- Germany still plans to abandon all nuclear power stations by 2022 at a cost of $720 billion.
- It's appearing that Sweden, Italy and Belgium will also phase-out nuclear, while Austria and Spain will not build new ones.
- South Korea has learned that nuclear facilities faked safety tests, and like Japan, there is a private sector - government culture of deception endemic in the oversight system. Six of 23 reactors were placed out of operation, and now even President Park Geun-hye turns off her air conditioner as a symbol of conservation. August is the most humid and hot month for much of Asia. If this is happening in South Korea, can you imagine the safety of nuclear power facilities in China?
- Because of Fukushima above, only two of the fifty Japanese nuclear reactors are in operation. Radioactive water is still entering the sea after 30 months! Yet, it is appearing that a major effort will be made to have most of the others get on-line in the Fall. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has long been an advocate for nuclear, and will ultimately take the heat for allowing this process to proceed. But he has no choice because new facilities will set the country back a trillion dollars. That is the Japanese way of leadership these days. They've had seven PMs in seven years, and Abe should be gone by this time next year for making a series of unpopular decisions. More than the heat of fission however, is that Abenomics, while fabulously successful thus far, will crack in time as consumer prices rise, industry finds that it has more serious problems with exports to China and South Korea, and the Nikkei crashes.
- About China:
Its all in how you want to report it.
However, according to the World Nuclear Association:
- nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily, with over 60 reactors under construction in 13 countries
- most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in the USA and Russia
- today, there are 435 nuclear power reactors in 32 countries, with a capacity of over 370 GW (370,000 MW), producing in 2011 13.5% of the world's electricity
These data do not exactly agree with those above, but such is the nature of energy statistics. This could be the nuclear scoreboard in 2035:
Note that with all that expansion, in 2035, only 2% of the electricity in China will be from nuclear facilities. They have too many people already and will soon allow more by changing their one child policy to two. Actually, not that many more children will be born, as improved economics and personal independence will trump more babies and marriage. Four years ago couples in Shanghai were already encouraged to have a second child, and this just did not happen. The current issue of TIME focuses on the childfree life. Now how did I get from nuclear energy to population?-
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